Very interesting, thank you for the analysis. One question, how do all these different systems interact with each other? Who guarantees the information is accurate? Curious why $LINK is not part of your analysis given its importance, and dominate market share, in guaranteed “truth”.
Great question. I'd imagine some form of oracle / crypto infra will play a big role. Could be Chainlink / Pyth. Could be centralized market data provider. Could be the perp oracle.
"It’s 8am ET. The US markets aren’t open yet, and as Steven prepares for work," - Sure you are talking about 2030 and Tradfi still works on 80´s banking time?
I think some markets will be 24/7 but I'd personally think mental health would get really bad if markets move 24/7/365. Maybe 24/5 or something. I wanted to pain the world that we want to exist. I don't want 24/7/365 markets for all assets.
My biggest concern about this “Brave New World” is the idea that trading is purely PvP. It’s unlikely there will be many “Stevens.” These wealthy individuals will, as usual, make up about 20% of the population at best. And if we’re talking about further concentration, that number could drop to around 5%
I think trading will be more PVP between retail and quants. I think retail can win together if done properly with the right communities and right tools. Our belief is there will be a ton of Stevens -- what stops someone from being Steven will just be agency since tooling / data / research will become open and available to all for cheap.
by the way most of what Steve does on this 2030 scenario is already feaseble today. the difference you emphasize i believe is on the popularization of those plataforms, and with that i could not agree more.
Last but not least... tks for this report. always good to dive into organized thinking as it has. Congrats and thx
Thank you Gustavo! Love your great takes. I agree a lot of 2030 scenario is becoming feasible today, but it will just be way more dominant and pervasive in 4 years.
2030 is closer than people think when you’re talking about on-chain infrastructure timelines. The piece that gets underestimated in every digital finance manifesto is the regulatory coordination layer — without G20-level alignment on stablecoin and tokenized securities frameworks, most of these projections stall at institutional pilot stage. We’ve seen this play out with CBDCs: the tech gets built, the political will doesn’t show up. What’s your read on the regulatory catalyst that actually breaks the logjam?
Very interesting, thank you for the analysis. One question, how do all these different systems interact with each other? Who guarantees the information is accurate? Curious why $LINK is not part of your analysis given its importance, and dominate market share, in guaranteed “truth”.
Great question. I'd imagine some form of oracle / crypto infra will play a big role. Could be Chainlink / Pyth. Could be centralized market data provider. Could be the perp oracle.
"It’s 8am ET. The US markets aren’t open yet, and as Steven prepares for work," - Sure you are talking about 2030 and Tradfi still works on 80´s banking time?
That sounds reasonable. Of course, these companies failed to implement 24-hour trading after a major deployment failure in 2028
I think some markets will be 24/7 but I'd personally think mental health would get really bad if markets move 24/7/365. Maybe 24/5 or something. I wanted to pain the world that we want to exist. I don't want 24/7/365 markets for all assets.
banger
💜
My biggest concern about this “Brave New World” is the idea that trading is purely PvP. It’s unlikely there will be many “Stevens.” These wealthy individuals will, as usual, make up about 20% of the population at best. And if we’re talking about further concentration, that number could drop to around 5%
I think trading will be more PVP between retail and quants. I think retail can win together if done properly with the right communities and right tools. Our belief is there will be a ton of Stevens -- what stops someone from being Steven will just be agency since tooling / data / research will become open and available to all for cheap.
by the way most of what Steve does on this 2030 scenario is already feaseble today. the difference you emphasize i believe is on the popularization of those plataforms, and with that i could not agree more.
Last but not least... tks for this report. always good to dive into organized thinking as it has. Congrats and thx
Thank you Gustavo! Love your great takes. I agree a lot of 2030 scenario is becoming feasible today, but it will just be way more dominant and pervasive in 4 years.
2030 is closer than people think when you’re talking about on-chain infrastructure timelines. The piece that gets underestimated in every digital finance manifesto is the regulatory coordination layer — without G20-level alignment on stablecoin and tokenized securities frameworks, most of these projections stall at institutional pilot stage. We’ve seen this play out with CBDCs: the tech gets built, the political will doesn’t show up. What’s your read on the regulatory catalyst that actually breaks the logjam?